Modelling Global Change

The Art of Integrated Assessment Modelling

Advances in Ecological Economics series

马可·a·詹森人类E的学校volution and Social Change, Arizona State University, US

This book provides an integrated approach to modelling, using a transdisciplinary approach. The author summarizes the main issues involved in the changing global system, and gives an overview of the emerging field of integrated assessment. He then presents a general discussion of the methodological principles of a multidisciplinary integrated modelling approach. Existing tools are examined and new methodological approaches are applied to various aspects of the problem of global change. The case studies focus on optimizing climate change mitigating policies, the allocation of emission rights and the the adaptive behaviour of social and biological agents. Special attention is given to the role of uncertainty, especially the subjective interpretation of uncertainties (world views), and the role of adaptive multi-agent modelling. The book concludes with a discussion on future uses of integrated assessment modelling in the global environment.

‘. . . this is a book that anyone interested in integrated assessment modelling is advised to read.’
– Barry B. Hughes, Foresight

‘This book provides an overview of the field of integrated assessment along with relevant methodological concerns and problems. The author has also contributed to the development of better tools by appropriately reshaping existing methods for the new types of problems faced by the human kind during the last decade in the area of global change and sustainable development. . . . It includes quite a comprehensive list of references and is full of illustrative curves and diagrams. Any professional interested in the field of global change and sustainable development would benefit immensely from this book.’
– Tara Chandra Kandpal, Journal of Science and Industry Research

‘Marco Janssen’s book Modelling Global Change is a quiet revolution in method. It is quiet because the claims are modest. The methods and examples are deeply informed by empirical theories of organismal, evolutionary and cultural change. It is revolutionary because it shatters and offers alternatives to the doctrinaire encrustation of simplistic methods that have dominated and distorted resource, environmental and economic analyses for three decades. It is a book that should be read by anyone concerned with developing fresh theories, policies and practises that recognize the actual way that people, economies and nature interact.’
– C.S. Holling, University of Florida, US