On the Brink of Deglobalization

An Alternative Perspective on the Causes of the World Trade Collapse

Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, Professor of International Economics and Macroeconomics, international Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, The Hague, The Netherlands

On the Brink of Deglobalization addresses the breakdown of international trade and capital flows in 2008/09 and challenges the mainstream narrative for the world trade collapse.

Detailed chapters on international finance, fragmentation of production, protectionism and earlier episodes of collapsing trade reveal data that contradicts conventional explanations and demonstrates that the trade collapse was driven by the shock of (perceived) trade uncertainty. Peter van Bergeijk discusses why trade barriers and import substitution are seen as solutions during depressions while presenting empirical evidence demonstrating the risks of such policies. This book provides a broad, historical and statistical analysis relevant to understanding the recent world trade collapse.

‘Peter van Bergeijk has written a fascinating book on the recent trade collapse, that in size can only be compared to the (trade) crises of the 1930s. There are at least two reasons to read the book. The first is to get a better understanding why the world has witnessed a dramatic decline of international trade. Peter van Bergeijk systematically analyzes the standard explanations that are given for this collapse, for example those put forward by the WTO, and concludes that most are wrong or unconvincing, and provides his own thought provoking explanation: risk and uncertainty. The second reason to read the book is that it provides all those interested in international trade with a clear and interesting introduction to understand the world of international trade and learn a great deal along the way, and not only about the recent trade collapse.’
– Steven Brakman, University of Groningen, The Netherlands